Dow
SP'daily5
Transports
Summary
A very bearish set of daily candles to end the day. The transports is especially starting to approach a key level. The bears will need to see <4800, although I don't believe that is viable in this current down cycle.
The Sp' 5 wave count.
I believe the count (blue) is probably correct, and if so, then it will be time to go long around 1340/45, sometime in the next few days.
Special note..
I have NO idea how to count that mess from mid September to October 18'th. I've seen a lot of chartists try to count it, and none of them have been able to adequately explain it.
All I know, is that I see two VERY clear bear flags - especially for a perceived wave'2, and thus we've just broken the wave'4 bear flag. We are surely in the last leg of this 5 wave down cycle.
Primary downside target is a very obvious 1345/40 - as based on daily, weekly charts, and even fib' levels.
Awaiting a serious bounce
A bounce to 1380/1400 is expected across the next 1-3 weeks, although it might even go a touch higher, a full back test of the broken Oct'2011 rising support - somewhere around 1415/25) which will become concrete resistance.
Lets be clear, I think we can start to call a top, at least for a few months @ sp'1474. Whether we can somehow break over that in 2013, well, that's something to merely keep in the back of the mind.
What matters now, the weekly and monthly cycles are both pressing downward, and the primary monthly target remains...sp'1200. That could occur within weeks if the market gets spooked by a perceived lack of resolution of the fiscal cliff.
A little more later..on those bigger charts.