Thursday, 15 November 2012

11am update - chop higher into opex?

Market is still showing a little weakness, but its nothing significant, and the VIX is still red. The transports continues to show the cleanest waves, and is suggesting we battle (slowly) upward into Friday afternoon.


Trans'60min



SP'60min


Summary

Its choppy, that much I think everyone can agree on.

I'm not quite sure what to guess for sp' by the Friday close, but somewhere around 1365/70 seems viable. However, since its opex, we could even go a little higher, as the market makers try to erase as many puts as possible.

So, I'm going to sit it out until Friday afternoon, where I will look to re-short into the weekend, and seeking a wave'5 on Mon/Tuesday, to hit 1345/40, before a thanksgiving/holiday bounce.

back at 12pm
 --

UPDATE 11.15am  We're seeing another bit of weakness. Its a very tricky area to be trading though, I won't be part of it.  We could easily drop to 1345/40 at any point, or merely crawl higher to 1365/70.

I simply won't be part of this. Transports still says we're due an up wave into tomorrow.