Friday 14 September 2012

Primary trend remains UP

With the Bernanke announcing new QE today, the market is again showing a new wave of strength. The possible scenario outlook of a major down wave in the autumn are once again fading away into oblivion.

Lets consider the big monthly chart for the sp'500

sp'monthly, rainbow, 6yr


Summary

We've now got 3 strong green candles, and baring any 'upset', October will also be green, and a hit of the huge 1500 level is now within range.

First target is the upper bollinger - currently 1473 (and rising). At the current rate of uptrend, the market will close the year around 1550/1600.

That outlook assumes 'no surprises' - no middle east Israeli attack on Iran, with the econ-data coming in at least 'reasonable'. That arguably translates to US Q3 (to be released late October) growth of at least 1%

It also assumes continued low volume/algo-bot melt up, with the 'Santa rally' period helping inspire the market to close on a high.

I am short, seeking a minor pullback - at least to 1420, but the bears need to recognise, the current trend does indeed remain UP. Until we put in a monthly close with a blue/red candle, those bears holding short for more than a few days at a time, are going to get burnt.

Goodnight from London