Thursday, 27 September 2012

Daily Index Cycle update

Another day of declines for the broader market, although the losses were only moderate. The VIX increase of almost 9% did confirm the underlying weakness that currently shows no sign of ending.

IWM, daily




So, we're at sp'1433, that's just 13pts shy of my secondary target of 1420. I certainly think 1420 is very much viable for tomorrow morning, with the VIX spiking in the 18/19 range.

Considering the MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle, I just can't see a break below 1420, certainly not under 1400. The only way we can do that is if a major European scare occurs tomorrow.

If the sp'1420s are the floor, then the ONLY issue is whether we push to a new high, or put in a lower high.

With a lower high, the bears can start to ramp up their position sizes, and prepare for a challenge of 1350 in late October. A break of 1350 would make things....very interesting indeed.

A little more later.