Daily Index Cycle update

Another day of declines for the broader market, although the losses were only moderate. The VIX increase of almost 9% did confirm the underlying weakness that currently shows no sign of ending.


IWM, daily

Sp'daily5

Transports

Summary

So, we're at sp'1433, that's just 13pts shy of my secondary target of 1420. I certainly think 1420 is very much viable for tomorrow morning, with the VIX spiking in the 18/19 range.

Considering the MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle, I just can't see a break below 1420, certainly not under 1400. The only way we can do that is if a major European scare occurs tomorrow.

If the sp'1420s are the floor, then the ONLY issue is whether we push to a new high, or put in a lower high.

With a lower high, the bears can start to ramp up their position sizes, and prepare for a challenge of 1350 in late October. A break of 1350 would make things....very interesting indeed.

A little more later.