Thursday, 23 August 2012

Volatility picking up a little momentum

The VIX closed higher by almost 6% to around the 16 level. This remains a bizarrely low level, not least considering all the macro issues out there.

With the main indexes closing lower by 0.8% or so, the VIX only made moderate gains, but gains nonetheless.


VIX, daily

VIX, weekly


Some pretty interesting turns are starting to develop on the bigger daily and weekly VIX cycles.

There are some very obvious breakout levels.

Bears should look for a weekly close >18. That will be very difficult to achieve tomorrow, even if the market loses a further sp'12pts to the next soft support level of sp'1390.

So..look for 18/20 VIX next week, but whether it can close at that level, that's one hell of an unknown issue. With the Bernanke due to do his speech at the hole next Friday, its really any ones guess how next week (and the month of August) will conclude.