Thursday, 23 August 2012

Daily Index Cycle update

A bit of a messy day. Some indexes closed marginally lower, but the declines were nothing of any significance. The primary trend remains up, although underlying upside momentum is certainly very weak now.

Dow, daily

Sp, daily5



So, the Fed minutes kinda helped inspire the cheerleaders on the clown network TV to suggest 'QE is near', although they been playing that tune for oh so many months now.

The key levels are pretty clear. Bulls will be seeking a new high >1426, and the bears are absolutely desperate to break the previous cycle low of 1354. Frankly, the latter just doesn't look likely in the near term. There is simply so little downside momentum, the market is practically dead, and we still have the threat of the next huge round of QE sometime in Q4.

Are we really going to see the Fed launch QE with the SP' over 1400, and Oil close to $100 ?

With just 7 trading days left of August, its kinda unsettling that early Autumn will soon be here. The one upside though is that at least volume is likely to increase...a bit, right?

A little more to close the day later.