Tuesday, 7 August 2012

Daily Index Cycle update

A very dull day, and even the last 30 minutes can't really be counted as anything other than 'marginal dullness'. I realise its the sleepy summer season, and the market can't often be expected to be trading briskly, but today must be both embarrassing and disturbing for the exchange managers.

There are just so few 'real people' left, and with Knight capital causing havoc last Thursday morning, no one should have any confidence in what is a very sick, nasty, and near bid less equity market.

A few of the daily indexes...





So..once again the bears will be asking themselves 'is that it?' Sp'1399...just missing the big 1400 again, last seen at the start of May - when the original rollover began. Its not a bad spike for a near-term top, but there is no turn on the MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle, in fact, its pretty bullish for the next few days.

A reminder on the doomer count.... - which a few notable others also are seeking in the weeks/months ahead.

sp'daily4 - the doomer count

As I've noted a few times lately, if any such outcome is going to happen, there needs to be a catalyst, something to really spook the market. Right now, there is no sign of anything in the immediate term.

So, even if do get down to sp'1350 this week, we'll very likely just bounce up again..and put in yet another higher high. Things only get interesting if we break into the 1320s..and close <1325. Only then can the doomer bears start to claim 'something' might be underway.

A quiet day, I'll leave it at that. Goodnight