Wednesday 11 July 2012

Volatility...lower again!

Even though the market got a little rattled after the FOMC minutes were released, the VIX still closed red. We can be clear about one thing right now...this market is still fearless.

Only with a move over VIX'20, can the bears start to look for significantly more 'interesting' things.


VIX'60min



VIX, daily



VIX, weekly


Summary

Many will be somewhat bemused at the VIX closing red, even though the indexes were pretty weak today. I'm not surprised though, there is still a bizarre lack of fear in this market, and I'm not entirely sure what might be necessary to get the VIX back into the 30s/40s - as I still expect.

As based from the weekly chart, I continue to look for a VIX explosion into the mid 30s within the next 3-5 weeks.

However, in teh immediate 3-5 day term, VIX could easily slip back into the 16s, not least if the indexes claw their way to around sp'1375/90.