Wednesday 11 July 2012

12pm update - one more wave higher?

The big question remains..one more little up wave coming, or do we just break 1330..and keep on going? I sure don't know, no one does.

What I do know is that we do NOT yet have any decisive breaks through any of the key levels, including the VIX which is again red.

There remains a VERY real threat that Mr Market will ramp post-FOMC press release this afternoon. I sure won't be holding short ahead of that.


sp'15min



sp'60min



Summary

The hourly index cycles could just be another baby bear flag..or they could be suggestive of a floor. This is too hard to call, and plenty of others out there are touting 'one final high to come'. I'm inclined to go with that.

If we do get a ramp, bulls should seek a closing VIX -5% or so, and Sp'1349/51, something like that. Maybe we're looking at a peak on Friday, which could be 1380. That seems a fair way up from current levels, but..we've all seen this nonsense ramp up on the lamest of reasons.

Time for lunch.
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