Monday, 9 July 2012

Volatility..a first move higher

The VIX closed 5% higher today, although still remains at the bizarrely low level of 17.98. The daily and weekly cycles continue to offer significant upside in the days and weeks ahead.

VIX, 60min

VIX, daily, rainbow

Still no decisive sign of a turn (via a green candle) on the rainbow chart.

VIX, weekly


VIX is low, and its not a difficult/risky belief to suggest that upside is more likely than downside. The only issue is how long do the bears need to wait?

I guess it could still be a few weeks until the VIX explodes into the 30s (or even 40s). The hourly cycle clearly shows the resistance around the 18 level. Bears need to see a snap/break over 20 to pick up some upside momentum.

Until VIX is back over 20, this largely sideways action could last for some weeks. Arguably a break over 20 is a valid 'chase it higher' entry point for the Volatility players.

More later...