Monday, 9 July 2012

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are marginally lower, sp -3pts, so we're set to open around 1351 or so. Nothing much  happened overnight, I guess Mr Market is waiting for the next EU rumour or some other nonsense.

*The only econ-data today is consumer credit later this afternoon at 3pm. I suppose that could move the market a little, but it tends not to be that much of a market mover these days - even when the number is bad.

A reminder on where we are....


sp'60min


Sp'1335 would certainly be a very natural place to target later today or early Tuesday.


sp' daily5


Summary

I'm looking for at least a move to 1340 today, that would be a nice 14pts lower, I'll look to exit there, and then see how any latter day bounce action is.

The lower channel line on the daily suggest 1330/35 today, but that will have risen to 1340 by this Friday.

So if we're below 1340 by this Friday, that in itself should mean we're on our way to sp'1266, although right now that seems at least 2 trading weeks away.


One last bounce?

There are plenty of chartists out there suggesting a move to 1340..and then a bounce to either put in a slightly lower high..or even one final higher high in the 1370/90 range. That remains my concern early this week.

Those bears looking for much lower levels must seek a VIX breaking back above 20 this week. If the VIX closes flat today (or even red!), then bears have a real problem again.

Good wishes for the trading week ahead!