Monday, 9 July 2012

12pm update - the important channel line

Right now, the lower channel - on the daily index cycle, allows 1330 without breaking the current broad up trend. So, the bulls still have plenty of buffer zone before they are in any trouble at all.

VIX remains only moderately higher. Bears should really be seeking VIX +7/10% by the close, which would equate to around sp'1340.


sp' daily5


sp' weekly



*You can see that a break into the 1320s would really do some damage, and break below the underside of what is a six week giant bear flag (wave'2).


Summary

A pretty quiet day. We do have consumer credit at 3pm, so that will be something for a few to watch.

As it is, I'll look to hold short overnight, I'd really like an exit at least 1335. What would be interesting is if we can close around 1340..and then gap down into the 1320s - breaking the up trend..and opening up much deeper falls later in the week, even <1300.

Indeed..the Tuesday open will be very important for the bears.
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Time for lunch!