Friday, 6 July 2012

VIX - still failing to break upward

Despite the main indexes closing lower by around 1%, the VIX actually closed moderately lower. The VIX, being what is it - a mere calculation based on option prices, is a very quirky indicator. So far -it could be said at least, VIX suggests virtually no fear in the market.

Bears will need to seek a VIX of 20 next week just to begin any kind of major move higher.


VIX, daily, rainbow

VIX, weekly


A fair few traders will be bemused at the weakness in the VIX today, I myself was one of them. Yet, we've seen this kind of thing before, where the VIX lags declining indexes for a few days, only to snap 20/25% higher 'sooner or later'.

As noted, any bear out there should be seeking a move to VIX '20 no later than next Wednesday. That should in itself open the door to the first attempt for VIX 24/25 by the end of next week.

The longer term VIX weekly cycle is still suggestive - at least from a price/wave perspective, of a move into the 30s/40s within the next month or so. Yet, we'll need to see a good weekly close over the weekly 10MA - currently 20.72, to confirm any such bearish outlook.

A VIX '21 by the close of next week, if SP can close under the broad up trend channel of 1340, looks viable.