Friday 6 July 2012

Daily Index Cycle update

We remain in a very broad up trend on the daily cycle, but we're getting very close to being maxed out on any basis, and are at least due for some sort of minor 2-3% pullback - which could play out as soon as tomorrow.


IWM (representing rus'2000 small cap)



Sp, daily5


Transports


Summary

The Rus'2000 small cap index has had the craziest ramp of all indexes, its obviously close to breaking the March highs, but is now looking grossly overstretched.

Meanwhile, the transports closed again below the FOMC highs. Is the tranny still warning of underlying trouble?

Bulls can easily tolerate a fall as low as 1330 tomorrow, and STILL remain in an uptrend. The bears should be VERY concerned about that size of buffer zone.

Personally, I can't get back on the 'major declines' due, until we break 1330...and then see a few closes under sp'1305. Right now, 1305 looks some 'weeks away'.

A little more later...