Saturday, 14 July 2012

Transports - which way?

The transports, aka..the 'old leader', remains stuck in a tight range. The first monthly close outside of the trading range will be a key indication for the broader market. There are small hints that the eventual direction will be to the downside.

Transports, monthly, 6yr

Transports, weekly


Bulls need a clear break over 5400, bears need a monthly closing under 5000.

Small hints of weakness? Well, the two previous months did show brief punctures below the 5k level, and June put in both a lower low, and a lower high.

Downside targets

First target is around 4500/4000
The 'doomer' target would be 3500, which is a huge 30% lower, probably equating to at least sp'1000,  I am not expecting the latter right now, primarily due to the Bernanke 'likely' to do QE3 at some point this year.

More on Sunday