Saturday, 14 July 2012

Daily Index Cycle update

Today's ramp in the indexes was stronger than I had expected, but I am fine with that. Let the bull maniacs ramp the market, we'll likely see the indexes max out and rollover sometime after next Tuesday.

Lets take a brief look at how the main six indexes closed the week....

IWM (representing rus'2000)

Nasdaq Comp






The sp' chart best outlines my outlook.

There are two broad outlooks - both bearish for late July/August

1. We make one final higher high >1374..and then start the first tiny wave of main wave'3
2. We make our first lower high <1374..and that would probably mean the recent decline was minor wave'1 of 3, and that minor wave'2 of 3 is also complete, with the destruction wave'3 then due to begin.

Regardless of which scenario will be correct, I am very bearish for the next 3-5 weeks.

At a minimum I am seeking sp'1225/00, no later than mid-August
Best bear case...sp'1170/50 -as based on daily fib' charts, and monthly index cycle outlooks
I would only be concerned that the bigger bearish outlook is in doubt, if we break over 1390. Clearly, and move over 1422 will violate ALL bearish outlooks. It really is that simple.

A little more later...