The bigger picture still looks promising, with some dramatic moves lower seemingly likely in the weeks ahead. However, bears are going to probably need a real catalyst to get a decline started. Where are all those black swans?
Sp'60min
Summary
Look at that hourly MACD cycle, its ready to go positive tomorrow morning, there is a very viable 4-6 hours UP, easily - and that's just in the first wave. That could get us to 1355/65 by Friday, and then a few more positive days early next week.
Just a little reminder on something from last year...that ties in with my overall outlook...
July/August 2011 collapse wave
I realise many would argue over the count on the above chart, but I don't think that's the important issue here. What matters is to be reminded of the style of what was a very impressive 12 day decline.
Now, consider where we are..and one of the 'doomster' outlooks that I am looking for
Sp, daily9c
We're clearly still holding within a large bear flag*, and its just a matter of when we break, not if. Downside should at least be to around 1225/00. I've seen a few people suggest 1250, but that just doesn't make sense to me for what should be a significantly stronger wave. I'm also well aware of some VERY key trendline support at the 1200 level - which goes back to the 2009 lows.
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*Note how the current bear flag is almost twice as big as the bear flag/wave'2 of blue wave'1. So, wave'2 (black) in Sept/Nov time frame, maybe that'll be twice the size of the current flag, something around 10-14 weeks.
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It does make me wonder,that if we somehow take a long time to get down into the 1100s, (when the Bernanke will likely appear), we could very much see a near mirror to 2011, with a big wave higher from late Autumn into Spring 2013.
Anyway, that's all for today....Goodnight !