Friday, 22 June 2012

Volatility - wave'2 complete...VIX'30s coming

The week closed with the main indexes showing moderate gains - relative to the big Thursday drop. VIX closed almost 10% lower, a 'no fear' market again. Arguably, this is laughably mis-priced in my view. Bargain puts for all the good bears out there this Friday!


VIX, daily, rainbow

VIX, weekly


A bearish end to the week for volatility, but we've seen the VIX probably put in a floor in the 16s this past Wednesday.  We have clear inside day as seen on the daily chart. The second blue candle, the bears should be seeking a big green candle on this chart next Mon/Tuesday!

The move from VIX 27s to 16s certainly makes for a strong wave'2 retracement..and we're now arguably set for VIX to break into the 30s...with sp<1266 in the next week or two.

The bigger weekly cycle shows the underlying momentum has been clawing back up since March. We're very much due to see some considerable volatility in July.