Friday, 22 June 2012

Pre-Market Brief - baby bounce due

Good morning. After yesterdays strong decline of 30pts, the futures are showing sp+3/4pts right now. That's a pretty small recovery bounce, I expect more than that later today.

Yesterday was such a strong downward day, it is highly likely it can be seen as confirmation of wave'2, and thus 3' has begun. The default trade now is to short until sp'1150/00 by late July.


sp, daily, 4mth


From an (hourly) cycle MACD (blue bar histogram) perspective we are now deeper on the cycle than at ANY time since last October I believe. We are due a significant 'brief' bounce to around 1335/40 sometime today.

We could even close moderately higher today, and that should be no concern for those bears looking at the bigger picture. The hourly 10MA (1344) will be primary intra-day resistance, however by end of today that will likely have fallen to around 1330. 

I plan to re-short at the top of the next 15min cycle, preferably after at least 3-4 hrs today, probably no later than 2pm. I won't mind holding across the weekend.

*Across the weekend I aim to post a lot of the key 'big picture' charts, that should help clarify all the many trends in both equities/commodities that are defining this new wave lower.

Good wishes for Friday

ps.....we have Greece vs Germany (football/soccer match) at 2.45pm EST today. In Europe this will be a HUGE deal, some are calling it the 'bailout match'.