The market confirmed the bear flags - as seen on the hourly cycles, and now looks set for falls into this Friday. Yes, lets be clear, I'm looking for sub sp'1300 either late Tuesday or Wednesday. That will open up much lower levels for Thur/Friday. An attempt to break the recent 1266 low is still very viable by this Friday.
My near term outlook is to close all short positions by this Friday afternoon, and sit it out until the following Thursday July'5 - after a minute wave'2 'holiday reversal'.
IWM, bearish outlook
The tranny closed below the key 5k level again - a very nice sign for the bears. Both IWM and SP' closed significantly lower, off the lows, but still...that's a nice fall to start the week.
The sp'1300 level will be a key marker this week. I have VERY high confidence we will soon be trading below 1300, and that will be a key indicator that the broader sp'1150/00 target for late July/August is firmly on track.
Tuesday is re-short day.
As permabear, I will be cheering the market UP overnight, and into the Tuesday open. ANY bounce/spike is a gift to the bears. I will definately start hitting buttons in the 1320/25 zone, and look for an exit late Wednesday around 1290.
If market does open high at the open...
Look for a red reversal candle on the VIX hourly chart by 10/10.30am...and black candles on the indexes (especially IWM) around the same time.
Can they kick the market up to 7/10pts by 9.45am or so? It does seem very viable. Regardless, the default trade is to short EVERY spike/bounce..and I will continue to do that for the rest of this week
A little more later...