Tuesday, 26 June 2012

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Well, here we go again.. Futures are moderately higher - and have been holding up relatively well, sp is set to open +3pts to 1316.

We have two pieces of econ-data at 10am, they might be the excuse for a renewed turn lower. I am especially looking forward to Wednesdays (8.30am EST) Durable Goods Orders, which I believe will be a major market mover to the downside.


sp'daily9c, bearish outlook

sp, monthly2b - H/S theory


First resistance will be the hourly 10MA at 1319 (although it will probably open around 1316/17). We could quite conceivably max out in the opening 5-10 minutes.

Look for hollow red reversal candles on the VIX, and black 'fail' candles on the indexes (especially IWM/Rus'2000, which often fails first). If I see them in the opening 30 minutes, I'll have high confidence for an early short position.

My re-short target zone remains 1320/25.
I see 'some' out there touting a minute wave 2 of 3 now due. I think they are wrong, and that a multi-day bounce won't start until late this Friday/early Monday.

Primary trend remains DOWN...I will short every spike/bounce I see.

Good wishes for Tuesday trading.