Friday, 15 June 2012

10am update - witchy twitchy market

Its quadruple witching today, so things could be even more twitchy/choppy than yesterday. We've already seen the VIX flip from +5% to -2 and back to +5 in the first few minutes. Healthy markets huh?

Today's econ-data all sucked, and it is further confirmation of major underlying trouble ahead. It remains laughable how with Japan, the EU/UK now in recession, there remain a majority who still think the US will be immune. Yeah...I remember hearing the same thing in late 2007, hell, even the Bernanke was suggesting no recession as late as summer 2008.

*consumer sentiment: 74.1, vs 77.5 expected... more lousy data.




Holding to original target zone of sp'1350/60, that seems unlikely to be hit until the middle of next week. If they can keep the momentum strong enough, then 1380/90 is possible.

Right now I'd guess the Fed' will extend QE-twist next Wednesday. That might be enough to kick the market up above my target zone. Of course, twist is not real QE, its just bond yield curve manipulation  So..any market gains will be VERY short lived.

Let them ramp it up.....wave'3 is patient my bear legion :)