From a cycle perspective, we're low, and the bears face a serious problem as the day moves on. Even if they can break to 1300/1290 late today, I can't see those losses holding, unless tomorrows retail data sucks.
sp'60min
vix'60min
Summary
Bulls will want to see a close over the hourly 10MA - currently 1320. That looks within range today, however if retail data comes in bad tomorrow, then we could easily jump into the high 1330s again, and that sets up a Thur/Friday hit of my 1350/60 target - where I would likely short.
VIX is very high on the hourly MACD cycle, it could easily fall all the way back to 20,, even 19/18 by Friday if get a wave'C to 1350/60.
I remain sitting this out...waiting for 1350/60.
Stay tuned...