The bearish outlook - with a primary target of the 200day MA at 1277 still looks viable. The H/S formation was arguably confirmed yesterday with the break of 1340. However, there is still the threat of a move to 1370/80 in the coming few days. Its opex week, we've the Facebook IPO, and the smaller cycles remain oversold.
Sp'daily - bearish outlook
Sp'60min - H/S formation
Summary
Its starting to get real tricky at the moment. Bears have a real problem, the daily MACD cycle is now VERY low. Despite the doom chatter out there (mostly about an imminent Greek exit), this is not a great place in the cycle to be adding new short positions.
60min cycle, daily.. say UP
weekly, monthly.... DOWN
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I'm not sure what I'm doing today. Going long after the market gaps up 50/75 dow, that doesn't sound great when you realise we could be red later in the day. Going short - knowing that 1370/80 remains a VERY natural target by Facebook opex-Friday, that's also a disturbing thought.
Probably best to do nothing..or just trade intra-day, a short when the 15min cycle peaks - which currently would be likely around 12-1pm.
More across the day....as usual.