Daily Cycle Update

With today ending weak, the daily cycles are off to a very bearish start this week. The Dow, SP', Rus'2000 all broke their key March low support levels. With the VIX closing almost 10% higher, the near term outlook for both commodities and equities remains bearish.


IWM, daily, bearish outlook

Nasdaq, daily

Dow, daily

Sp, daily, bearish

Transports

Summary

The H/S formation as seen on the daily cycles was arguably confirmed today with the break below sp'1340. I think today was very important for the bears. Even though we may still have a few days of upside - due to oversold conditions, Facebook hysteria, and Friday opex, the rest of May looks very bearish. The next target is the big sp'1300, and then the 200 day MA of 1277. That is viable before the month ends.

Taking into account both the weekly and monthly cycles, I am holding to my overall summer 2012 outlook for a 3-6month trend to around sp'1100 - at which point the Bernanke will almost certainly appear...from his little Jackson Hole in August.

A little more later...still to come.