Wednesday 4 April 2012

No Fear

There is no fear in this market. None. I suppose some would say that is the sign of a market top, but hey...the 'no fear' stage can last months..as we've already seen a number of times in the last 3 years.

Despite today's afternoon market decline, the VIX closed barely up.

VIX, rainbow chart, daily, near term


Baring a major move lower, it does not look like VIX is going to go much above 17.or 18 by Thursday. By then of course the cycle will arguably be complete, and that sets up for another wave lower for the VIX starting next Monday.


VIX weekly - momentum still crawling back up


A lot of posters out there do point out the giant wedge that the VIX is displaying, but still...the 'floor' could last many months..easily into the June/July period which is where my index highs (SP'1550) would be.

Until VIX breaks above 20...any moves are unreliable, and to be treated as minor..and completely irrelevant noise.

Goodnight