Wednesday, 4 April 2012

Closing Summary was not exactly the most exciting end to the day, lets look at those hourly cycles...


SP' already making a challenge to get back above the important 10MA. The MACD cycle looks like it has floored - and certainly the price action put in a good 5 hour floor today. However, even if we open up moderately positive Thursday, its likely going to take 3-5 hours just to get back to + cycle.


The Rus'2000 index is still weaker than just about all other indexes, but even this did put in some attempt of a bounce. Most bearish case would be some kinda overnight upset/bad Friday jobs data, and see this drop to around 80.00 by late Monday. The monthly cycle would strongly argue against that though, and the VIX is already looking maxed out.


VIX already on the decline, although it did put in a higher high today. Can the VIX hold positive cycle tomorrow, and break into the 18s?

Thursday (end of the trading week!) 

The bulls don't necessarily need a strong Thursday. Even a flat day -whilst the cycles reset (especially the hourly) would be okay.

Best bull case:
SP +7/10pts, by late morning - before some highly probable retracement/re-test of the 1400/05 level.
IWM to around 82.50/75.  The 83.00/ gap-fill levels seems kinda unlikely though.

*I am holding long - via IWM calls overnight. I'm prepared to hold into next week if tomorrow is largely flat.

If we open up (for whatever reason) strongly I'd look to sell into the open, and re-long later in the day at the base of the next 15min cycle sometime between 11am-2pm. I am still guessing the Friday jobs data will lead to the next major move up in the market.

More...somewhat later...