Thursday, 21 April 2016

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. US equity futures are a little higher, sp +3pts, we're set to open at 2105. USD is -0.4% in the DXY 94.10s. Metals continue to soar, Gold +$22, with Silver +4.2%. Oil is +1.6% in the $44s.


WTIC, weekly2


*ECB: rates u/c... the QE continues.. as they strive for inflation.

To break trend, equity bears only need a daily close <sp'2107.

The 2065/61 zone remains first target, and its notable that if 2061 is hit within a few days.. that'd be a swing of 50pts (2.4%) from yesterday's new cycle high.

Update from Oscar

Clearly, commodities and stocks have seen some very strong gains recently. Yet many in the mainstream are still saying rates will remain low and QE - BoJ/ECB, will continue.

We can't have both. If the supply of commodities - relative to demand, really has changed.. we have a major inflationary bubble that could get out of control real fast.

My outlook still leans on the deflationary side, but if WTIC oil >$50... along with new historic highs in stocks... watch out!

Overnight action

Japan: solid gains of 2.7% @ 17363
China:  weakness into the close, -0.7% @ 2952
Germany: currently -0.5% @ 10366

Have a good Thursday