With US equity indexes closing moderately mixed, the VIX managed a second consecutive net daily gain (intra high 18.04), settling +2.9% @ 17.35. Near term outlook threatens further equity upside, at least to the 200dma of sp'2022, with the 2030/40s viable next week.
The opening hourly VIX candle was a black-fail, and that sure didn't bode well for the equity bears.
Despite moderate equity weakness in the afternoon, the VIX only managed a brief venture to the low 18s, before cooling into the close.
Volatility bulls are probably going to need to be patient until the ECB and the FOMC are out of the way, before VIX has any realistic opportunity of sustained upside above the key 20 threshold.
VIX 30s look out of range until early April, with hyper upside to the 40/50s viable from around mid May.
more later... on the indexes