Thursday 11 February 2016

11am update - the Yellen speaketh

The head of the US Federal Reserve, aka the CEO of print central, aka Janet Yellen, continues to try to inspire confidence to the US senate, and the US/world capital markets. For the moment, the markets are arguably increasingly frustrated that a rate cut/QE are still many months away.


sp'weekly1b



VIX'weekly



Summary

*I wanted to take a broader look this hour at the bigger weekly cycles.
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First, the current equity candle is ugly as hell.. offering ZERO sign of a floor/turn. If sp'1812 fails... then next key support is not until 1750/25 zone.

For the moment, I'm guessing 1812 will hold, but we're only 10pts shy of that right now.
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VIX is increasingly powerful, now sustainably above the key 20 threshold, something which was near impossible to even test across 2013-14.

Underlying momentum in the VIX shows no sign of a turn... a weekly close >30 would bode very bearish for US equities next week.

Indeed.. equity bulls really need to see a turn later today.. and push back upward tomorrow, at least to the sp'1840/50s.
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Re: Gold


A rather bizarre sight.. as Gold is going exponential, now up almost $50.  Clearly.. this rate of increase will end badly.. and is completely unsustainable. 


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Here in London city...


After an icy night... its actually pretty good here, and another day closer to the summer.

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time to cook (no in-house servants in my world)
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11.02am.. BA under extra pressure, some kind of investigation...



Next support the giant psy'level of $100, after that... empty air to $90/89. I'll try to cover it more later.