Wednesday, 30 December 2015

11am update - moderately weak

US equities are moderately weak, with the sp -6pts @ 2071. With the latest EIA report showing a net build of 2.6 million barrels, Oil is imploding, -3.0% in the $36s. The issue of over-supply remains entirely unresolved, and there is currently ZERO sign of industry capitulation.



Hmm, the gap zone of 2060/56 still looks out of range.

A day of weak chop... and Thursday will likely offer renewed upside. If we can at least close >2065.. my 2090 target remains in range.

*I've always taken requests to highlight any given stock/commodity...

Poster 'brelsa' asked about Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL)

CBRL, weekly, 2.5yr

The stock has had a real problem since making a marginal new historic high in July ($156.99). Aug' saw it flash-crash to $117.06... with a lower high of $151 in Sept'.

Since then..  broad weakness to this morning @ $125. There is clearly some significant support in the 126/123 zone though... and unless that breaks, CBRL looks more vulnerable to upside.. than downside.

As a company.. income/balance sheet look good (cash/debt ratio look okay), gross/net profit margins are within industry standard... 6% net. That sure isn't much, but then.. thats the highly competitive restaurant trade.

see HERE for a basic overview.

Best guess...renewed upside to 135/140 zone in Q1. 

It should be clear though, for sustained >140.. we'll need sp'2200s.. and beyond. 

Low fuel prices look set to continue across 2016, and that will no doubt help ALL retail/food outlets.

Broadly.. CBRL looks a fine company, although I can't say anything about the food, as there are no Cracker Barrels in the UK.

time for lunch, back at 12pm