Wednesday, 12 August 2015

10am update - opening weakness

US equities open sharply lower for the second consecutive day, with the market a clear 50pts below the Monday high of sp'2105. VIX has finally broken above resistance of the mid 14s, +13% @ 15.50s. Near term outlook is for continued weakness to the early July low of sp'2044, and that should equate to Dow 17K with VIX 17/18s.




A clear break higher in the VIX... and if you can accept the notion of at least another day higher to 17/18s.. then you have to also be seeking the sp'2040s.

I am aware some are seeking the sp'2000/1975 zone... but that would necessitate a sustained move under Dow 17000, and right now.. that looks difficult.

notable weakness: BABA

Ugly daily chart... nothing good there. Even clown finance TV were bitchy after the CEO's rather robot-communistic interview.

For the moment, I am holding short the market... but I will certainly look to be fully closed out by the Friday close.

*awaiting the latest EIA oil report at 10.30am...   If Oil breaks under the March low in the $42s today... it'll really drag the main market with it into the afternoon... and tomorrow.

10.08am.. notable weakness, airlines, DAL/UAL, both lower by around -5%.

sp'2061.. VIX 15.60s. ....     The 2040s with VIX 17/18s.. look a likely cycle peak... late today.. or tomorrow.

10.28am... EXITED VIX-long from 16.20....

I've a tight stop on INTC-short... looking to get out.

Call it overly twitchy... but after the last few weeks, I want to start afresh.

10.29am.. EXITED INTC-short.. from 28.85.     Failed trade.... it just didn't sell lower as expected.

10.40am... a bit of market chop...  VIX has already cooled to the 15.70s....        there is an obvious gap zone.... more at 11am