With US equities unravelling into the weekend, the VIX finally saw some upside kick, settling +9.5% @ 13.84 (intra high 14.73). Near term outlook - as supported by the bearish engulfing weekly equity candles, offers further upside next week, to the upper gap zone of 16.60 or so.
*a significant net weekly VIX gain of 15.8%
So, the VIX has climbed from a Monday low of 11.71 to the mid 14s. In the scheme of things.. this remains a very low VIX.
Even if VIX can hit the upper gap around 16.60 next Mon/Tuesday, the key 20 threshold looks out of range in the current cycle.
Once we move into the second half of August, I will be increasingly trading with a target of VIX in the mid 20s - at minimum, by late Sept'. For now.. I remain cautious.
more later... on the indexes