Friday 31 January 2014

11am update - VIX is not breaking out

The market is still sitting pretty close to the edge of a major snap lower. However, most notable this morning, equity bears are still unable to break into the VIX 19s. Critical downside support is around 1767/65 - where the 100 day MA is lurking.


sp'60min



vix'60min


Summary

*we have a very clear double top in the VIX- a perfect one of 18.99.

Unless we break >19, bears should be making an exit this morning, since there is obvious major threat of upside.
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In the bears favour...

Bear flags on the daily charts
Weekly trend is currently...down.
Monthly charts offering an initial rollover (but VERY early stage)

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Long day ahead....keep those eyes on the VIX


11.06am.. bears are losing it..window is likely closing at the typical 11am turn time.

VIX 17s imminent..with sp'1782...

I will note though, the weekly close still looks to be bearish, but the longer the bears take to test 1760s, the harder it gets to break it.


11.10am bears failed....VIX 17s..and market looks set to make another play for the low 1800s. Anyone short should have been short-stopped in the last hour.

$5bn of QE money out there today...and 'end month' issues.


11.30am.. battle continues. VIX 17s does not bode well for the bears..and with sp'1785..its not looking good for anyone still holding on the short side.

Daily charts still look good though..bear flags all over the place.

AMZN -9%....first time in a long while that opening post earnings declines not been reversed.