Monday, 22 April 2013

12pm update - C wave underway ?

Mr Market is battling back, and a moderate rally into the close looks very viable. Those bears getting overly excited about those earlier declines could be real annoyed by early Tuesday. Metals and oil are holding reasonable gains, VIX is cooling down, set to go red.



I've added a channel on the hourly chart, maybe that will be useful for Wed, when bears really should be seeking some kind of initial weakness.

First obvious downside target is a break <1536, which is certainly viable by Friday, even if we are in the 1570s tomorrow.

*re: Friday GDP. I've read the story on some 'intangibles' of 500bn to be added to GDP. I think its due to be added for Q2 data in July,  Regardless, the market should start to re-price in the underlying weakness out there.

VIX update, from Mr T.

I think the buyer of the 'call stupid' was..stupid for buying a day early. They could probably get the VIX in the 14s tomorrow.

The patient (usually) a less stupid bear.