Monday 9 July 2012

2pm update - still..quiet

With no major econ-data this week, I guess the rest of this week could be like this, but the daily index cycles warn of much lower levels later this week.

Consumer credit data at 3pm...and we have Alcoa earnings at the close. I wonder how the cheer leaders on the clown networks will try to spin any lousy earnings this week.


Sp' daily5



VIX, daily



*a simple chart, but its clear that VIX is yet to break the down trend. Only a move over 19.50 can the bears start to get a little excited.


Summary

From a MACD cycle perspective, we are now day'3 down across most indexes, with negative cycle still 2-3 days away. Assuming the trend continues, that would suggest 1330 will not hold, and that should mean a fair chance of 1310 - which was the floor in the last down cycle.

Bears just need to see <1305, and that should clarify the bigger picture, in which case 1225/00 is coming.

First things first though....lets see if we can at least get a moderately red close!