VIX unable to hold early gains

US equities opened lower to sp'2043, and that resulted in the VIX spiking to 15.28, but with a swift equity recovery to a new cycle high of 2075, the VIX reversed (intra low 13.00), settling -6.1% @ 13.10. Across the week, VIX saw a sig' net weekly decline of -11.1%.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

VIX'weekly

Summary

*the opening black-fail candle was yet another early warning that equities were liable to reverse higher, although I sure did not expect them to reverse to new cycle highs.
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Suffice to add, with equity prices melting upward into the close, the VIX itself melted lower into the weekend.

Sustained VIX action above the key 20 threshold looks unlikely until the latter half of April. Hyper VIX upside to the 30s, 40s, or even beyond, look entirely out of range until May.

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*I remain long the VIX - via TVIX, and despite a disappointing end to the week, my own consolation is that I only need VIX 16/17s for a profitable exit.
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more later... on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities ended the week on a broadly positive note, sp +13pts @ 2072, having swung from an early morning low of 2043. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.7% and +0.3% respectively. Near term outlook is extremely borderline, as the equity bulls are set to begin taking out the series of marginally lower highs... or... an epic fail.


sp'60min

Summary

*closing hour action: micro chop, but with a notable new cycle high of 2075.
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... and another week comes to a close.

April began with the bears being teased in early morning, with a swift reversal, one that held into the weekend.

The levels are clear across the various indexes.

It remains simply a case of whether the bulls can start breaking above the series of marginal lower highs.

2081, 2104, 2116, 2132, 2134
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Regardless of the market nonsense..............

Have a good weekend

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more later... on the VIX

3pm update - net weekly gains

With no afternoon reversal, US equity indexes are set for net weekly gains. The swing from the morning low of sp'2043 to the 2070s is a major threat to those holding short. Metals remain weak, Gold -$10, with Silver -2.5%, and that is impacting some of the miners. Oil is -3.6% in the $37s, and for now, the equity market just doesn't care.


sp'weekly1b

Nasdaq comp', daily

Summary

*the Nasdaq comp' is arguably even more a problem than the sp'500/Dow. A daily close in the 4900s will open the door to a test of the giant psy' level of 5K next week.

Any action in the 5000s, is white flag territory for the remaining big/serious bear money.

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notable weakness, airlines, UAL

UAL has put in a micro double top in the $61s.. and appears to finally be following Boeing (BA). First soft downside would be the $55/54s.
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...annoying end to the week... urghhhh !