VIX a little higher

With US equity indexes closing moderately mixed, the VIX saw a great deal of chop (intra low 13.49), but settling +2.9% @ 13.95. Near term outlook offers the 15/16s. Sustained action above the key 20 threshold looks out of range for another 2-3 weeks.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

VIX' monthly

Summary

*with March coming to a close, a rare look at the monthly chart, which saw a net decline of -32.1%

The powerful net monthly decline should come as no surprise, after the Jan/Feb' candles. The topping spikes are usually a strong indications of upside exhaustion.
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Market volatility remains very subdued, but on any fair basis, is set to climb to the mid/upper teens within the near term.

However, a sustained move above the key 20 threshold looks out of range in the current up wave from the low of 13.06.

Equity bears/VIX bulls will probably have to wait until the latter half of April before things start to get a little wild again.

Hyper VIX upside looks entirely out of range until at least early May.

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more later... on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed into the March/Q1 close, sp -4pts @ 2059 (intra high 2067). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.3% and +0.3% respectively. Near term outlook offers a retrace, at least to the sp'2000/1990 zone.


sp'60min

Summary

*closing hour action: minor chop, an attempt to re-clear the hourly 10MA, but failing, and leaning distinctly lower into the close.
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... and the first quarter of the year concludes.

It sure hasn't been boring, with a major Jan/Feb down wave to sp'1810, but then a massive rebound to 2072.

Most notable.. despite a mountain of 'everything is fine again' chatter, the equity bulls are yet to clear the most recent of the 'marginally lower highs' - the late Dec' high of 2081.

Until that is closed above... the equity bears can hold short.

Have a good evening
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more later... on the VIX

3pm update - the sun sets on Q1

US equities have seen one hell of a first quarter, declining from sp'2043 to 1810, only to then see a hyper rebound to 2072. Since the May'2015 high of 2134, the series of marginally lower highs remains intact.

sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

A rather glorious sunset to end a spring day.
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As for equities, we have the usual 'end month/quarter' rebalancing issues, so.. expect price action to get a little more dynamic in the closing hour.

Considering the hourly equity/VIX cycles, I'd be inclined to seek increasing weakness into the close, and across tomorrow.

What now matters is how the market interprets the monthly jobs data. Even then.. whether seen as 'good news IS good news' or 'bad news is good news'.. or even 'bad news IS bad news'... cyclically speaking, this market is still due to retrace.

*the hourly cycle is offering VIX 15s with sp'2040/35 tomorrow morning.
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yours truly remains holding short.

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back at the close.. to wrap up the day/month