VIX climbs for a third week

With equities settling lower for a third consecutive week, the VIX was naturally continuing to rise, settling the day +12.8% @ 27.02. Across the week, the VIX attained a fractional net weekly gain of 0.04%. Relative to equities, the VIX is relatively subdued, threatening a short term equity rebound into the next FOMC (Jan'27th).


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

VIX'weekly

Summary

*there was a 'rogue print' of 30.95 at 10.40am, and I am dismissing it as such.
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Suffice to add, relative to equities, VIX remains surprisingly subdued.

Just consider that when sp'1867 in Aug'24th 2015, the VIX exploded into the 50s. Yet today.. with sp'1857, the VIX was not able to hold the 30 threshold.

Of course, the style of equity price action is somewhat different, but still, I'd have expected to see front month VIX at least in the 35/40 zone.

In any case.. much higher VIX levels look due in the weeks and months ahead.. as the market increasingly unravels.

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more later... on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equity indexes closed broadly weak, sp -41pts @ 1880 (intra low 1857). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -1.6 % and -1.7% respectively. Near term outlook is very uncertain, as there is clearly threat of a giant Tuesday gap lower to the 1750/25 zone, whilst there is upside bounce risk to the 1940/60 zone.


sp'60min

Summary

*closing hour action: naturally, a lot of chop
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... and another week at the wildest and most twisted casino in the world comes to a close.

We've only had 9 trading days of the year, but it feels like so much has happened.

We have a truly wild and crazy year ahead.... at least to the sp'1600/1500s.... and - as I fear, a latter half hyper ramp.. possibly to new historic highs.

As I will keep saying... unless the equity bears can attain a monthly close under sp'1500, any talk of sp'1000.. or the even more crazy 500s.. remains in the realm of fantasy land.


Have a good weekend everyone :)
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the usual bits and pieces across the evening.. to wrap up the day

3pm update - a third net weekly decline

US equity indexes are set for a third consecutive net weekly decline, having broken a new cycle low of sp'1857.. the lowest level since Oct'2014. VIX is holding gains of around 20% in the 28s... which considering the equity market weakness, is arguably somewhat subdued.


sp'weekly1b

sp'60min2

Summary

Regardless of the closing hour - which frankly.. could see almost anything happen, its a third week for the equity bears.

Clearly, any bounces are to be shorted in the weeks and months ahead.

The sp'1600/1500s look a rather easy target.

From a pure technical perspective, by this April, the leading/headline indexes (sp'500, dow, nasdaq) will have the same MACD setup as Sept'2008.. and we remember how that month traded, right?
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Say hello...

I'll keep DISQUS open for the 3pm post on my screen in the closing hour.. so.. if you want to say hello... please do !

yours.... not short... but neither getting his ass kicked on the long side.

I live to fight another day :)
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3.04pm.. I can't remember who highlighted CBRL to me recently.....

Today its offering a rather powerful hyper-reversal candle. First upside target would be the 50dma in the $127s
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Another sign of a 'natural floor'...

APA, daily

H/S formation has played out... a bounce to 40/42 zone would not be overly bold.
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3.09pm

'hollow red' reversal candles appearing all over the place...

AAPL, daily

First target is the 102/105 zone.
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3.12pm.. As things are, the hourly MACD cycle is set to turn positive early Tuesday, but who wants to seriously go long on such a trend, whilst price action remains broadly weak?

Today was day'12.. and typically... that is usually the max number of days in a short term down wave.

Arguing against that is that the VIX remains relatively subdued, and there is no sign of capitulation.

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Market twitchy... sp -43pts @ 1878     VIX 27.90
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3.27pm... We could still close as high as 1890.. as there might be a fair few short side traders who fear the PBOC doing something this weekend.
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3.37pm... Increasingly looking like the market makers are striving to pin the market at sp'1885/90