Volatility climbs into end month

With US equities unravelling into the weekend, the VIX built rather significant gains, settling +11.8% @ 20.97 (intra high 22.18). Near term outlook is offering a possible VIX explosion into the 30s... if a daily close <sp'1970. Across the week, the VIX gained a very significant 25.9%


VIX'daily3

VIX'weekly

VIX'monthly

Summary

*I very rarely highlight the giant monthly chart on the VIX. Usually, there is little point... but with the VIX itself becoming more volatile.. I think it is becoming increasingly important.

The MACD (green bar histogram) cycle will turn positive at the Monday (Feb'2) open. The last time that happened was Sept'2011... when the market was being smashed around in the sp'1100s.. with VIX in the upper 40s.
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The net weekly VIX gain of 25.9% is certainly significant, but equity bears should be seeking a break into the 30s.. if sp' fails to hold the 200dma (1973 or so) next week.

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more later... on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities saw further swings, but with very significant weakness into month end, sp -26pts @ 1994 (intra low 1993). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -2.3% and -2.1% respectively. Near term outlook looks increasingly bearish.. the door is opening to sp'1920/00 by mid February.


sp'60min

Summary

*I bailed on a legacy R2K (long) position into the close. Price action looks stinky, and there seems little point holding across the weekend.
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This afternoon was a major failure for the equity bulls, having broken declining trend, but with a clear spike fail on the hourly chart.

Looking at the VIX monthly cycle... I have to say.. it looks like the market might be looking for a full washout to the low sp'1900s before the next multi-week up wave.

Have a good weekend
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*the usual bits and pieces across the evening.. to wrap up yet another week...

3pm update - Oil jumps into the weekend

US equities have seen a notable break above declining resistance, but are now slipping again. Meanwhile, far more dynamic, Oil, which just earlier was higher by a rather extreme 8%. Metals are similarly building gains, Gold +$23.


sp'60min

USD, daily'2, rainbow

Summary

*first green candle since late November, and infinitely more powerful. Without question... today's upside in Oil is one of the strongest gains in a long while.. although January is still set for net monthly decline of around 10%
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As for equities.. it remains a real mess.

We do have a clear break above declining trend... but now its looking somewhat ugly again.

A Friday close <2k would be something of a train wreck for the bull maniacs....
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3.11pm... sp'2005.... its getting real edgy... with VIX 20.63.. close to high of the day.


3.22pm.. sp'1999... NEW daily low... and it turns the sp'500 cycle BEARISH.

If we close <2k.. it'll be the first bearish monthly close since Jan'2012.


3.25pm... Even AAPL has turned red (new historic high of $120.00 earlier)...

*to be clear... sp'2002 is the threshold for a monthly bearish MACD cross.. which to the technical maniacs out there... is the one to watch.. into the close.


3.31pm.. back to 2005... it remains pretty wild out there.. with VIX 21s

sp'500 Net monthly decline... -2.6%  biggest since Jan'2014

Notable weakness, airlines, DAL/UAL, both lower by -5%... on the oil jump


3.35pm.. looking at the VIX monthly chart... it will break positive MACD cycle at the Monday open... is suggestive of a full wave lower to sp'1920/00 zone within 1-2 weeks. Make of that.. what you will.
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3.43pm.. its getting fast and dirty.. sp'1998.... vix 21s + 15%


3.49pm.. Gold +$25.... almost fully reversing the Thurs' drop... huge monthly gain.... more on that.. later.

Still marginal as to whether we see a monthly bearish close in the sp'500.... need <2002.


3.53pm... ugly close...

*I'm bailing on a legacy R2K position, I'm out....  since the door is now wide open to sp'1920/00.... no point holding across the weekend in my view.
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3.55pm... So.. now its a case of sp'1988 double low to be taken out...

Yes..there is support at the 200dma... but price action looks increasingly lousy... and we're set for a monthly BEARISH close.

Bulls failed................ back at the close.