Volatility manages only minor gains

Whilst equities saw moderate declines, it was notable that the VIX remained relatively subdued, settling higher by just 1.8% @ 16.66. Despite a new cycle low of sp'1904, VIX remains below the Friday high of 17.57.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

Suffice to say... there remains an increasing divergence between the weak equity market.. and a VIX that remains somewhat stuck in the 15/17 zone.

I do not expect VIX 20s in the current cycle...unless a really crazy news story (such as a Ukrainian invasion) occurs.
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more later.. on the indexes

Closing Brief

US indexes closed moderately lower, sp -10pts @ 1909 (intra low 1904). The two leaders - Trans/R2K settled -0.2% and -0.5% respectively. Near term outlook remains for renewed upside.. at least to the sp'1960s.


sp'60min

Summary

*a somewhat vain attempt by the market to put in a spike floor hourly candle in the closing hour.
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Equity bulls were teased at the open with moderate gains, but there just wasn't any follow through.. and with the 1911 low taken out.. the bears can claim another day in their favour.

Price action wasn't particularly weak though, as reflected in a VIX that had turned red a few times.

On any basis, a key floor is due... whether from 1904, or a touch lower.
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more later... on the VIX

3pm update - weak chop into the close

US equities remain moderately weak, with a likely daily close in the sp'1915/05 zone. VIX looks set to close with minor gains.. but still under the Friday peak of the 17.50s. Metals continue to build gains, Gold +$6.


sp'60min

Summary

For those long from yesterday (not least yours truly).. today has been a bit of an annoying tease. Opening gains of around 0.5%..but no real sig' upside power.. and hence..another wave lower.

On the flip side..neither are bears displaying any particular power on the downside. Sure..we've broken a new low. but the VIX certainly is not indicative of any real trouble.

Many seem agreed.. we're close to a key low.

As things are... NO decisive turn upward on the hourly/daily charts, and even if tomorrow is net higher.. it offer any real clarity until next week.


3.18pm.. sp'1906..... hmmm  its starting to feel like max-pain....

VIX is starting to show some kick +4% in the 17.10s.

17.60s...would be an 'issue'.


3.31pm.. sp'1904... still ZERO sign of a turn.

No doubt... a truck load of long-stops around the 1900 threshold. Mr Market to wash them out early tomorrow?

Fractional break of the Dow 200 dma, although that is not surprising..happened in early Feb.


3.51pm... another day for the bears.... disturbingly close to breaking 1900. 

3.53pm.. a vain attempt to close the day with a spike floor on the smaller 5/15/60min cycles.