Volatility at the big threshold

With the main indexes seeing renewed weakness in the closing hour, the VIX closed +16% @ 19.41. Near term trend remains clearly to the upside. The big unknown is whether the VIX can start to put in a few daily closes in the 20s. something we've not seen since June 2012.


vix'60min

vix'daily3

Summary

The VIX climbed into the close, and saw further gains in the brief 15mins of AH trading. A Tuesday open in the low 20s looks very viable, and indeed, the only issue now is whether the VIX can hold the 20s for some 'days', or will it just collapse lower, as it has done over and over again for the past 15 months.

More than anything, equity doomer bears should be seeking a weekly VIX close in the 20s. If that is achieved, it would be suggestive something has finally changed, since the ongoing equity rally began in Oct'2011.

So..regardless of how we trade tomorrow, how we close the week will be VERY interesting to see.

more later..on the indexes

Closing Brief

The main indexes closed with moderate declines, with the sp -14pts @ 1676. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, both closed -1.1%. Near term remains moderately weak, but the longer this goes on, the bears are using up their time quota. The sp'1700s remain relatively close.


sp'60min

Summary

*certainly, the closing hour was somewhat weak, but still..the bears never managed to break into the 1660s today, and considering the overnight futures, I'm still seeing the bears as weak. Volume was light. There is still no real selling going on.
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Just what will it take for the headline indexes to see a 1% daily decline? It seems such a difficult task.

*one good thing the bears do have...no significant QE-pomo until next Tuesday. A full 5 trading day window for the bears to push lower.
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the usual bits and pieces across the evening.
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yours..
   tired.

3pm update - closing hour chop

The bears continue to struggle just to hold moderate index declines, with the sp -0.4% @ 1683. The VIX is reflecting continued concern, +10% in 18.50s. Metals are cooling down a touch, Gold +$10. Oil remains moderately weak, -0.5%.


sp'60min

Summary

Considering the hourly MACD cycle, this just doesn't look good at all for the bears. There is very significant risk of a jump (on any speculative rumour) higher into the 1690s.

It really comes down to whether you consider it a one party state.

If you do, then you know its all theatre..in which case..you also know how it ends for the equity bears.
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The bigger weekly charts are still offering what is a pretty big bull flag. The 10 MA continues to be a pretty key zone for the bulls to hold.


sp'weekly8

Yet..the only real clarifying move would be a break <1627. That would be first lower lower since Oct'2011. Right now...sub 1627 just doesn't look likely.
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3.39pm..market is teasing the bears at sp'1680

sp'5min

A daily close in the 1670s would be kinda interesting, but really, bears need <1675


3.49pm.. VIX 19s..been a fair while since we saw that!

Bull rats are selling into the close..makes for a change, but still.....the Thursday low of 1670 is important to take out.