Monday 7 October 2013

3pm update - closing hour chop

The bears continue to struggle just to hold moderate index declines, with the sp -0.4% @ 1683. The VIX is reflecting continued concern, +10% in 18.50s. Metals are cooling down a touch, Gold +$10. Oil remains moderately weak, -0.5%.


sp'60min


Summary

Considering the hourly MACD cycle, this just doesn't look good at all for the bears. There is very significant risk of a jump (on any speculative rumour) higher into the 1690s.

It really comes down to whether you consider it a one party state.

If you do, then you know its all theatre..in which case..you also know how it ends for the equity bears.
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The bigger weekly charts are still offering what is a pretty big bull flag. The 10 MA continues to be a pretty key zone for the bulls to hold.


sp'weekly8


Yet..the only real clarifying move would be a break <1627. That would be first lower lower since Oct'2011. Right now...sub 1627 just doesn't look likely.
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3.39pm..market is teasing the bears at sp'1680

sp'5min


A daily close in the 1670s would be kinda interesting, but really, bears need <1675


3.49pm.. VIX 19s..been a fair while since we saw that!

Bull rats are selling into the close..makes for a change, but still.....the Thursday low of 1670 is important to take out.