Volatility at the big threshold

With the main indexes seeing renewed weakness in the closing hour, the VIX closed +16% @ 19.41. Near term trend remains clearly to the upside. The big unknown is whether the VIX can start to put in a few daily closes in the 20s. something we've not seen since June 2012.


vix'60min

vix'daily3

Summary

The VIX climbed into the close, and saw further gains in the brief 15mins of AH trading. A Tuesday open in the low 20s looks very viable, and indeed, the only issue now is whether the VIX can hold the 20s for some 'days', or will it just collapse lower, as it has done over and over again for the past 15 months.

More than anything, equity doomer bears should be seeking a weekly VIX close in the 20s. If that is achieved, it would be suggestive something has finally changed, since the ongoing equity rally began in Oct'2011.

So..regardless of how we trade tomorrow, how we close the week will be VERY interesting to see.

more later..on the indexes