Volatility fails to soar

Despite the sp' closing -22pts @ 1628, the VIX failed to close significantly higher, and instead settled +0.2% @ 16.64. It remains a largely fearless market, and today's VIX close bodes badly for those equity bears who are seeking a break <sp'1608/1598 in the days ahead.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

No doubt a lot of amateur traders will be utterly bemused at today's VIX flat close.

Yet, this is something I've seen a fair few times over the last few years.

Usually, such a close means the equity declines are just temporary, and that the market will soon be rebounding.
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A VIX weekly close in the 14s still looks very viable.

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more later...on those indexes

Closing Brief

Despite the Fed continuing QE at $85bn a month, the market apparently moved into a post-statement depression mood. Most indexes declined by around 1.25/1.5%. Despite the declines the VIX still closed red..and that probably says it all in this bizarre market.


sp'60min

Summary

That was a pretty exciting afternoon!

Certainly, despite the continued QE at max-speed, the market probably just used todays FOMC event to wash out the weaker bulls.

Nothing has changed.

Primary trend remains UP, and I still expect sp'1700s this July.

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*I will look to go HEAVY long the market early Thursday - unless we break trend support @ 1620.,

Bears should keep in mind, Thursday is a QE day of $3bn
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3pm update - QE continues in full

All those touting taper talk should shut up and go away (again). The Fed not only improved its outlook for inflation and jobless rates, but will continue QE at $85bn a month. Why will it stop...ever? Market remains a choppy mess, but looks set for much higher levels in the weeks ahead.


sp'5min - note the micro-swings

Summary

Indeed...so much for those who are counting on the paper printing to be wound down..even a little.

The fed won't stop...and as some note...perhaps can't stop. Ever.
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Market remains a choppy mess. Next downside target is around 1635.

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*I will look to go heavy long the market early tomorrow


2.59pm...rats getting washed again.. sp'1636.....at my target.

There really isn't much support now until 1620..at which point things would get VERY interesting.

3.02pm... you can see CRITICAL trend support @ 1620

Any break <1620..and market in dire trouble


3.13pm.. sp'1637...and stuck. Certainly, we might be floored now, but hourly charts certainly won't be showing a turn until late tomorrow morning.

For those looking to buy the dip...there should be no hurry on that trade.

Despite the weak indexes...VIX is -1%... now THAT is probably the tell for tomorrow..and indeed..another six weeks.


3.23pm...daily charts not looking so great now, but then..todays action is arguably to be seen as a special case.

What is clearly critical now...bulls MUST hold 1620...and with QE continuing, I'm sure they will.


3.29pm.. time for a mini moon ramp.

Bernanke ...concludes (perhaps for the last time). I've suspicion Yellen will take over next month..before Jackson hole.

3.43pm... count 5 micro-waves lower... with a floor early tomorrow..then UP ?

Hmm

3.49pm... Further down wave.. .- tiny 5 ?    GLD makes NEW cyclical low.....next level 120..thats $100 lower for the shiny gold.

Fun day huh?