3pm update - waste of time

Well, despite just about the worse economic data we've had in a few years, and with European unrest growing again, we're seeing another massive rally day.

It is without question, a waste of time from the bearish perspective.


sp60min

sp'daily5

Summary

The daily cycle on all indexes is now levelling out, and we're all set for new highs, sp'1500s in the next few weeks. Great huh ?




What is pathetically laughable is that we declined from 1474 to 1430 , 44pts, a decline of barely 2.5%, and everyone gets hysterical again, only for today's move to revoke the previous two day decline in almost one session.

With the daily cycle turning back upward, that is probably it for the bears, for some weeks. Baring some 'upset' tomorrow, which frankly looks so unlikely, we're back to UP UP..and UP.
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back later...much later.

12pm update - still seeking sp'1420s

We remain in a bear flag on the indexes, downside is still pointing towards the next soft support level of 1425/20. That probably equates to a Friday VIX of around 18/19


sp'60min

vix'60min

Summary

So long as we don't spike higher, and close over 1445, I'm still pretty confident 1420s can be hit in the near term. Its still possible we could even close in the 1420s, but that now seems more likely tomorrow.

The hourly cycles on both the indexes and the VIX are around 50% reset now, its just about enough to justify a latter day rollover.

VIX doing a gap-fill at 16.75 this afternoon, before the next jump to 18/19 ?

back at 2pm

10am update - still a bear flag

Despite the opening gains, we still have a bear flag holding on the sp'500. The VIX is -3%, but is holding up okay in the 16s.


sp'60min

sp'daily5

VIX, daily, rainbow

Summary

Hmm, so, opening gains, but certainly nothing dramatic. Considering the daily and weekly index cycles, it is arguably a shorting opportunity, at least for a day-trade.

*The earlier GDP Q2 (revised) of 1.25%, and Durable Goods Orders of -13.2%...truly beyond dire. Clearly, the Fed believes the US is now in recession in Q3, and thats why it initiated QE3.
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VIX rainbow chart, still a green candle despite the opening declines, trend remains UP. I am most certainly looking for a brief spike to 18/19 either late today, or tomorrow. 

I hold to my original target of 1420 by the Friday close, and look to exit there.

back at 12pm