Volatility - holding up

Despite the indexes rising around 1% today, the VIX only closed marginally lower, and in fact was largely green for much of the day. The daily and weekly cycles continue to suggest much higher volatility levels in June.


VIX'60min

VIX, daily, bullish

VIX, daily, bearish

VIX, weekly

Summary

More than anything, I like the VIX weekly chart. It was warning since March of downside in the indexes, and we did indeed see a move from sp'1422 to the daily cycle low of 1291 just last week. Yet VIX is still relatively low, we have seen no panic spikes yet. There have been no high volume selling days in the equity market.

Mr VIX near term target remains 27/29...that may well be enough for a 'spike high', but...I am still looking for high 30s/40s by late June.

Closing Brief

So..we had a mini-ramp to close the day, based on ultra-low volume of course. Mr VIX though - despite closing red, still held up very well considering the rise in the indexes.

Lets look at how those hourly cycles closed...


IWM'60min

Dow

Sp

Summary

*first, ignore the counts on those hourly charts, I don't much like them!

A messy Tuesday overall  I'm sure a lot of bulls would have bailed earlier during that lunch time weakness. Doubtless, they'll be even more annoyed now to see the closing hour mini-ramp!

From the hourly perspective, it sure looks like a big bear flag right now. We'll only know if it is, if we break back below 1300, and then 1291 by the end of this week. We certainly have the possibility, if the latest jobs data sucks this Friday.
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More later...looking at the VIX and those Daily Cycles - the latter of which are still suggesting further index gains to come.

3pm update - last hour sell off.. or mini ramp?

Market holding on tightly to gains of dow +70/75, but that's barely half of the earlier amount. VIX remains green..still! A lot of the mainstream media today understandably focused on the FB nonsense, although that remains ironic coming from such cheer leading maniacs.


Sp'15min cycle

Sp'60min cycle

Summary

I don't often mention the 15min cycle, but you can get a clearer picture of one thing that is the case so far these past few days. We have seen a series of higher lows and higher highs - including today. Only with a break of 1315 can the bears start to get curious again, and even then, they really need a break of the bigger 1300 level - as seen on the 60min cycle.

Bulls will merely want a close over sp'1330, that should at least offer a brief move into the 1350/60 zone later this week.

As I keep noting, in the bigger picture of things, whether we get stuck at 1340, 50...80..it really doesn't matter for the mid-term bearish trader. Its all mere noise...we're going lower across the summer.

More after the close.