Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. US equity futures are significantly higher, sp +28pts, we're set to open at 1896. A weekly close around the 1900 threshold looks probable. Metals are losing their fear bid, Gold -$5. Oil continues to bounce, +4.7% in the $31s.


sp'60min

Summary

Well, it seems we have 100% clarification that sp'1812 is a short term floor... same for Oil.

Now its a case of how high do we bounce.. and how long will it take.

Best guess: 1970s.... with a target of next Thursday afternoon.

I expect GDP Q4 (due Fri' Jan 27th) to upset the market, and if we're trading around 1970 next Thursday, I'll probable short into end month.

*First broader downside target remains 1750/25 zone. In theory though (especially for the wave counters out there) the monthly cycles are suggestive of a mini crash wave straight into the 1600s....

A wild spring is ahead!
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early movers...

AAPL +2.1%... 98s
CHK +7.6%
FCX +5.1%
SDRL +4.5%
TWTR +3.5%

TVIX -9.9% @ $9.90, the 7s look probable by late next week.

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Update from Oscar



As Oscar notes.. this is a short term bounce. I find it disappointing he doesn't at least throw out a broader downside target (does he do that in the chat room sometimes?)... but I'd imagine he is looking for at least the 1600s.. as I am.

*I'm aware a few are seeking 1200/1000 zone by October, but I'll hold to my original outlook.
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Overnight action...

Japan: soars across the day... +5.9% @ 16958
China: +1.2% @ 2916
Germany: currently +2.2% @ 9781

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Have a good Friday

Equity and energy bears are exhausted

Having fallen from sp'2081 to 1812.. along with WTIC Oil imploding from the $38s to the $27s, it would seem its a case of bearish exhaustion. A short term floor appears in, with the market set to battle upward into February. Any bounce though.. is just that.. a bounce. Mid term targets remain unchanged.


sp'weekly1b

WTIC, weekly

Summary

re: sp'500: its possible equities will see a moderate net weekly gain, but regardless, it would seem 1812 is a short term low.

A rally into early February to the 1940/70 zone looks probable.... along with VIX 20/18s
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re: WTIC oil. Oil looks to have a short term floor of $27.56, and looks set to break/hold the $30 threshold. From there, the $35 threshold.

The underlying issue of over-supply remains COMPLETELY unresolved. Renewed weakness looks due.. probably to the teens, before there is adequate industry capitulation.

.. and the same issue applies to the (often overlooked) mining industry.

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Looking ahead

Friday will see PMI manu', existing home sales, and leading indicators.
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Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp +9pts at 1868 (intra range 1889/48). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +1.0% and -0.2% respectively. Near term outlook is bullish, as the sp'1812 low looks set to hold for some weeks. Regardless of a bounce into February, the broader downside target remains unchanged.


sp'daily5

R2K

Summary

Suffice to add, it was a bit of messy day in equity land. Opening moderately higher (post ECB/Draghi), but then quickly cooling to sp'1848. With Oil then rebounding - despite another 4 million barrel net inventory gain, the market was dragged higher.

It would seem the sp'500 is headed for the 1940/70 zone. Sustained action >2K looks out of range, relative to the increasing downward momentum as seen on the giant monthly cycles.
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Closing update from Riley



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a little more later...