Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Equity futures are moderately higher, sp +7pts, we're set to open at 1955. Continued upside looks due into next week... at least to test the big psy' level of 2000. Metals and Oil are both starting the day moderately weak.


sp'60min

WTIC, daily

Summary

*ECB announcement (7.45am EST)
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So.. we're set to open somewhat higher, The hourly cycle is offering the 1980s in the immediate term... and that certainly seems viable by the weekend... if the market sees the monthly jobs as 'Goldilocks'.

I realise some out there are seeking renewed equity downside in the near term - not least after the Tuesday train wreck, but I remain of the view we're forming a giant wave'2 /bear flag.

In theory, the current wave from 1903 could continue upward into FOMC week, and by then.. we could be as high as 2050 or so.

For now... I won't short this market... and will merely continue with moderately sized long positions. I'd like to exit AAPL in the 114s today... that seems possible.
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early movers

AAPL +0.6% @ $113
GDX, -1.1%.. as metals are on the slide, Gold -$7
TSLA +3.0%

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Have a good Thursday
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7.46am.. ECB rates: unchanged

*Draghi will have a press conf' in the 8am hour... market will be carefully listening.

sp' +8pts @ 1956
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7.58am... meanwhile...

;)
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Coming up... Mr Draghi... jobs data.... and probably some more equity upside.
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8.31am..  weekly jobs.. 282k...  inline.... remaining 'broadly low'... relative to what the data tries to reflect.

 sp +8pts.. 1956....


8.34am.. Indexes going hyper on Draghi... sp +19pts... 1967....
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8.42am.. Euro weakness... USD strength... equities UP...  sp' 15pts... 1963

notable weakness: NFLX -2.3% in the $102s... really struggling



8.45am.. Broadly. Draghi is placating the market... with most EU indexes higher by 1.5%.

With USD on the rise, metals are weak, Gold -$10.

.. and here is the latest extended QE threat...

Naturally, the equity market likes to see that sort of headline.
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9.08am... equities cooling... sp +7pts.. 1955...

Overall though.. still headed >1993
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9.29am..  in more important news... its Draghi's 68th birthday.


9.41am.. EXITED AAPL-long  @ 112.55.    The smaller 5/15min cycles are a little stretched. and early action is not exactly inspiring me to hold.

.. I'm just a little concerned that we'll see a moderate wave lower into the afternoon.. to 111/110s.

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Anyway.. its third consecutive AAPL gain (1 short, 2 long)...  so,  thats  okay.

Upside into the FOMC

With a powerful retrace from sp'1993 to 1903 now arguably confirmed after today's gains, there can be some confidence that the market will broadly rise into the next FOMC of Sept'17th. The only issue is where might the market get stuck... 2010, 40/50s, 70s.. or a fake out around the 2100 threshold.


sp'weekly

China, daily

Summary

Suffice to note.. a second consecutive candle with a spiky floor.. suggestive of further upside in the near term. The weekly 10MA will be offering resistance around 2020/10 in FOMC week. A brief push above 2020 looks viable... but I find it difficult to envision sustained action above 2050/70.
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re: China. A daily reversal candle to end the short week (China is now closed until next Monday)... the daily MACD (green bar histogram) is set to see a bullish cross next Mon-Wed', and that does offer upside to around 3600 in about 7-10 trading days.

From there... I expect another major rollover.. with revised primary downside to the 2500/2000 zone. Again, it has to be asked, if the Shanghai comp' does collapse ALL the way back to the summer 2014 starting point of 2K... how will the communist leadership react? How many media or bearish traders will... disappear?
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Update from Oscar



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Looking ahead

Primary issue will be the latest ECB meeting.. with Draghi hosting a press' conf' around 8am EST.

Data: weekly jobs, intl. trade, ISM/PMI service sector.
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Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

US equity indexes closed significantly higher, sp +35pts @ 1948. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 2.4% and 1.6% respectively. Near term outlook is for continued upside, with the sp'2000 threshold probable next week.


sp'daily5

Dow

Summary

It would seem we have confirmation that the move from sp'1993 to 1903 was a retrace.. if a very powerful one.

All indexes look set to break above last weeks highs... whether by this Friday... or sometime next week.

Best guess... sp'500 to max out somewhere in the 2010/2050 zone by the next FOMC of Sept'17th.

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*I hold long-AAPL overnight, with no interest to short the market until FOMC week.

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a little more later...