3pm update - a bounce for the bull maniacs

After five (ohh the humanity!) consecutive net daily declines, the sp'500 is set for a significant net daily gain... somewhere in the 2085/95 zone. Sustained price action above the 2100 threshold looks overly difficult, and considering the bigger weekly/monthly cycles... renewed weakness into end month looks probable.


sp'60min

vix'60min

Summary

*note the upper bollinger on the hourly cycle...  that was always a 'worse case' for those shorting during today.

All things considered though, today is likely just a bounce.. within a broader down trend.
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*TWTR earnings at the close.... it will make for some entertainment. Something to look for, user numbers.. which TWTR is going to struggle to increase.

2pm update - did it stop yet?

US equities have continued to grind higher, to sp'2091... a mere 2.2% away from breaking a new historic high! It remains somewhat bizarre how many continue to get so twitchy on even a moderate decline of 3-4%. VIX is surely close to a near term floor in the mid 13s... having cooled from the low 16s.


sp'15min

sp'60min

Summary

Well, it is the 2pm hour... typically when Mr Market will max out.

The micro 5/15/60min cycles are all on the high side now.. and we're set for some equity cooling into the close.

Personally, I just can't see sustained price action back in the sp'2100s.... but hey... we'll find out soon enough, not least with a Fed day tomorrow.. and first reading of Q2 GDP on Thursday.

Also.. since Friday is end of month, we'll have some of the usual 'end month' issues.

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*Naturally, yours truly was a few hours early... and I remain long VIX.. from the low 14s. A break into the sp'2050s.. whether later this week.. or next.. should easily result in VIX 17/18s.. and for me.. that'll be more than sufficient to have justified another VIX-long trade.
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1pm update - equity bounce maxed out?

The sp'500 has bounced from an early low of 2069 to 2087, along with VIX @ 13.80.  Regardless of the exact close, today is likely a mere bounce day.. with lower equity lows by the monthly close. USD is holding moderate gains of 0.2% in the DXY 96.70s. Gold is u/c, whilst Oil +2.0% in the $48s.


sp'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

*I am long VIX from 14.15.. with sp'2086. Clearly.. a little early.. but still... its lower than my 14.50 target from yesterday.. and I'm content with things.

Now its a case of whether we see those sp'2050s.. with VIX 17/18s before month end.
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The bull maniacs are set for a net daily gain... but there really doesn't seem to be anything sustainable about this up wave. It won't take much to rattle the market and break new cycle lows.. whether late tomorrow or Thursday.
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notable weakness: BABA -1.3% @ $80. If there is main market upset into Sept/Oct... BABA will vulnerable to returning back to the IPO level of $68. Mr Ma is probably more than concerned about that.

strength: INTC +1.8%.. but still.... only in the $28s... and seemingly headed for the low 20s.